The impeachment of Donald Trump is more likely than a lot of people realize. While the Democrats are over the moon at finally getting something on the President to hang on him, the reality is the Republicans who will ultimately decide Trump’s fate.
Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. There is no legal standard for ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ as stipulated in the Constitution. That definition will stand on what the nominally Republican-controlled Senate think.
That Trump is facing this attack reflects him doing a few things anathema to his political opposition, and they have all hit nearly at the same time:
- He pursued Joe Biden’s own admission of pressuring Ukraine publicly to fire a prosecutor investigating his son Hunter Biden.
- Trump’s State Dept., for all its faults, was finishing its review of Hillary Clinton’s e-mail trove. The Washington Post tried to get in front of it with this highly quoted report.
- Trump fired his incompetent and bloodthirsty National Security Adviser John Bolton in the wake of the Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility on September 14th.
- Trump refuses to give up on diplomacy with North Korea and Iran, steadfastly refusing to go to war.
For these ‘crimes’ and others, Trump is, in my analysis, likely to be impeached. And the reasons have nothing to do with his guilt vis a vis abusing his office.
The GOP has been nothing but an albatross around Trump’s neck from the beginning. They will very likely rollover here and allow Mike Pence to play the part of Gerald Ford against whoever the Democrats put up.
I’ve given Trump a lot of grief over his foreign policy and personnel choices because he’s deserved it. But, for all of his faults, his instincts about keeping the wars to a low simmer have held sway.
This tactic by his opponents reeks of desperation and cover up. It smells like a coup, no different than the Mueller investigation. When the stakes are this high it is better to expect the worst rather than the middle ground. Because as bad as Trump is he is far better than what comes next.