Moon of Alabama August 19, 2023
This week the Ukrainian army committed its last reserve brigade with western equipment to its counter-offensive. It will get ground up just like the forces it is replacing. The furthest the counter-offensive has gone in total was in the south of Orkiv where it progressed some 12 kilometer. It took more than 72 days, and many losses of men and material, to get that far. Tokmak, an important traffic center that Ukraine would like to take, is still 12 kilometer away. It is also protected by several well build defensive lines which the Ukrainian forces will be unable to cross.
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I have no idea where or how large the Russian offensive will be, but two days ago the Belorussian President Lukashenko gave a hint of its potential size:
COMBATE |?? – @upholdreality – 21:56 UTC · Aug 17, 2023LUKASHENKO to Ukrainian reporter: “Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 people in dead and maimed. 45,000!.. Your losses are 1 to 8 at the frontline. And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware. You will be crushed… and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions… You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory.”
video
Here is a longer version of the Lukashenko video with close captioning and the complete interview which unfortunately has no close captioning.
Best reader comment:
I just hope that Taiwanese people are paying attention and will vote accordingly next year: do they want to play the role of Ukraine in Asia with all its obvious “benefits” as displayed here or do they want to go back to the don’t ask, don’t tell status-quo with the mainland?
Ukraine has really been a good object lesson of the benefits of being the “west’s” client state when faced with an actual strong neighbor.
Posted by: Caliman | Aug 19 2023 15:31 utc | 11
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