Dr. Rob Campbell  January 9, 2026

As we enter 2026, let’s spare a thought for the soldiers of both sides in Ukraine who are spending the orthodox Christmas at the front in wintry weather and a continuation of hostilities. It will not be a peaceful Christmas for them.

This week, commentators have been preoccupied with the attack on Venezuela and the kidnap of its President – which has overshadowed the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. I have published two short articles on this which you can read here and here. I also cover the fallout from the attacks below as Trump announces plans to steal up to 50 millions barrels of Venezuelan crude1 and demands that Russia and China not be allowed to trade in this oil. Along with many others, I believe that this attack and its aftermath announces the complete breakdown of international law and the onset of barbarism. It’s a sad start to 2026 and the world has changed, becoming a more dangerous and less harmonious place for us to live. There will be battles ahead between the hegemon and the emerging multi-polar world order/BRICS and many are speculating about how the latter should respond. This article in Sputnik suggests that they should stop buying US arms – for a start.

On January 8th/9th, in retaliation to the attack on Putin’s residence, Russia has launched an Oreshnik attack on the underground gas storage facility in Lvov (the largest in Europe). You can see footage on X and read more at Sputnik.

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The Marinere was traveling in international waters so was outside the jurisdiction of any nation state. The fact that it was attacked with impunity sets a precedent that other nations may follow and it serves to confirm that international law is dead as a doornail. I believe that it also reinforces the claim that some of us have been making for a while: The Third World World War is not coming: it’s already here! It is different from previous wars but is, nevertheless a war of sorts. I’m not sure what people have in mind when they talk of war but most dictionaries define it as ‘armed conflict between countries’. These definitions do not suggest just how much ‘armed conflict’ is required to justify the claim to be at war or how the conflict is expressed. War fought by proxies such as that in Israel and Ukraine is armed conflict. So even if the big boys are hiding behind the skirts of proxies, it is still armed conflict. If a country seizes the ship of another country on the high seas it does so by being armed and by using or threatening to use arms: that’s armed conflict. Tankers are not seized in times of peace. If we weren’t at war in 2025 we are certainly at war in 2026. In July 2025 I published an article entitled: ‘Is the Third World War Here?’ based on a question posed by Dmitry Trenin. The Third World War cannot be fought in the same way as previous World Wars because the US is a Sea Power and neither it nor its European lackeys are capable of a land war politically or physically. So, the US is attempting a Sea War, maybe in the hope that it will be able to compete in this arena with Russia, China and Iran. Therefore, the war will continue along the same lines with the US and the Europeans capturing Russian vessels in the Caribbean/Atlantic or even the Baltic while Ukraine will continue to carry out terrorist attacks on Russia’s tankers. On the 9th January, the US announced its intention to capture more tankers, some of them Russian. The war in the Middle East could expand to include Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Economic, political and military attacks on non compliant nations, inside and outside of the West, will continue, including attempts at regime changes all over the planet. All these things are part of the Third World War, in my view.

In future, we will need to prepare ourselves for defeats that are merely apparent and victories that may be reversed. The Russians and anyone opposed to Israel and the US will suffer acts of terrorism but we must not lose hope. As an optimist, I am predisposed to be hopeful but it requires an effort of mind to remain so in these times.

Read full piece at link below:

https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-f26