Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s ultimatum to Trump
In a tightly structured 12-minute address, Ayatollah Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei moved from familiar rhetoric into something far more consequential. The opening half of his address followed the expected script, but as reported by Lebanese commentator Marwa Osman:
“[M]idway through, the tone shifted from retrospective to strategic. Sayyed Khamenei outlined three concrete demands, each with a defined timeline: A rapid U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East: a full rollback of sanctions within 60 days, and long-term financial compensation for economic damages”.
“Then came the ultimatum: Fail to comply, and Iran escalates, economically, militarily, and potentially nuclearly. Not hypothetically, but operationally: Closing the Strait of Hormuz, formalizing defence ties with Russia and China, and moving from ambiguity to declared nuclear deterrence”.
The timing of external reactions was just as telling. Within hours, both Beijing and Moscow issued statements aligning in a carefully worded, yet unmistakable way, with the new Supreme Leader’s framing, suggesting coordination.
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Iran evidently is ready to match Trump on the escalatory ladder. Iran’s leadership style plainly has changed with the new Supreme Leader: He is no longer interested in incremental ‘toing and froing’. Iran’s leadership is going for decisive outcomes that will change the West Asian geo-strategic landscape.
And Iran believes that Hormuz represents the leverage with which to do this.
Iran has established a select and safe shipping corridor for approved and IRGC vetted vessels to transit the Hormuz Strait – provided that the cargo is paid in Yuan and subject to a fee. It is estimated that Iran potentially could earn $800 billion a year in fees from such a Suez Canal-type regulatory regime.
This, in theory, allows the energy market to be supplied, but with the proviso that Iran would simply close the Strait completely were Trump to implement his ultimatum.
Professor Michael Hudson notes that Iran’s new demands are so “far-reaching that they seem unthinkable to the West: That Arab OPEC countries must end their close economic ties to the United States, starting with the U.S. data centres operated by Amazon, Microsoft and Google … And that they [must] divest their existing petrodollar holdings that have subsidised the U.S. balance of payments since the 1974 [petrodollar] agreements”.
“The recycling of petrodollars has been the basis of America’s financialization and weaponization of the world’s oil trade, and its imperial strategy of isolating countries that resist adherence to the U.S. ruler-based order (no real rules, but simply U.S. ad hoc demands)”, as Prof Hudson puts it.
An Iranian choke-hold over Hormuz – plus the Houthi’s control over the Red Sea – could wrest domination over energy and its pricing from the U.S. — and, absent the petrodollar inflow to Wall Street, pull the plug on U.S. financialised global domination.
What is at issue here is not just Iran’s aspiration to eject the U.S. military from the Middle East, but also a geopolitical transformation as GCC and Asian states (such as Japan and South Korea) are compelled by necessity to become ‘client nations’ of Iran to gain access to the Hormuz waterway. And because only Iran would be able to guarantee safe passage.
Effectively, should Iran be able to maintain its choke-hold on the Hormuz, the geo-politics of Asia would be recast in a new strategic reality.
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