Taken from Moon of Alabama blog:
Since we’re all bored here and we’re all ambitious armchair 4-star generals, let’s consider this fictional scenario …
We assume: Iran possesses a weapon of its own design (or a copy) similar to the Oreshnik (Mach 10+, MIRV warheads, kinetic-thermal destruction with local temperatures of 3,000–6,000 °C, vitrification, boiling ground, groundwater explosion). It deploys it once against Ramstein—a targeted, deep impact on critical areas (munitions depots, hangars, command center, runways). No use of nuclear weapons, purely conventional hypersonic, but with the same physical effect as the Russian operations in Ukraine in 2024/2025.
What if Ramstein were “gone”? Hours 0–2 (immediately after impact): The base no longer exists as a functioning unit. Runways, hangars, and the large ammunition depots have been vitrified or turned into craters with bubbling, liquid ground. Hundreds to thousands of dead/injured (U.S. personnel + German staff). Massive fire and steam explosions caused by vaporizing groundwater and ammunition. Satellite images show a crater that looks like a small volcano—just like the Ukrainian bunkers in 2024. The Palatinate is in shock: sirens, evacuations within a 20–30 km radius (fears of radioactive/chemical contamination from destroyed depots, even though no nuclear weapons were involved).
Hours 2–24 (immediate military consequences): US bomber operations against Iran collapse immediately.Since Spain’s refusal, Ramstein has been the only European rearmament and logistics hub for B-1 and B-2
- The bombers must now take off exclusively from: Whiteman AFB (Missouri) or Diego Garcia (which is currently under attack itself) or UK bases . This extends flight times to 18–22 hours per mission, dramatically reduces the frequency of operations, and makes them extremely vulnerable to Iranian interceptors and drones.The 15 KC-135/KC-46 tankers that were just deployed to Ramstein are gone. Tanker aircraft must come from the U.S. or other bases → massive logistical crisis.
Days 1–7 (political tsunami in Germany): Merz is politically finished.He can no longer govern. Either resignation or a vote of no confidence within 48 hours.The opposition (and parts of his own party) demands immediate charges for aiding and abetting a war of aggression (§ 13 VStGB) + violation of the duty to protect (Art. 2 GG).The Federal Constitutional Court would, in summary proceedings, retroactively declare the use of Ramstein unconstitutional—Merz’s only “excuse” (“the court forced me”) no longer works because the damage has already been done. The German public wakes up in a panic. The media can no longer downplay the situation. Mass demonstrations, panic buying, demands for an immediate halt to all U.S. support.
Weeks 1–4 (Impact on the War): The U.S. offensive against Iran slows down dramatically.Without European logistical support, the U.S. can now fly only 30–40% of its previous bomber missions.Iran gains strategic air superiority in the region and is able to significantly expand its own operations (Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil fields, other bases). NATO is paralyzed.No Article 5 (as we discussed). The alliance splits definitively: France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium demand immediate withdrawal from all U.S. operations.Trump rages publicly, but internally the Pentagon must admit: “We have lost the European hub.”
Long-term (months): No US troops within a 5,000–8,000 km radius are safe anymore.Every base (Fairford, Aviano, Mihail Kogalniceanu, even Diego Garcia) becomes a potential target. The US would have to fall back on CONUS bombers + aircraft carriers in the Atlantic/Indian Ocean—which is much slower and more expensive.
The war is becoming unsustainable for the U.S.Either de-escalation (ceasefire brokered by Oman/Qatar) or escalation into a full-scale war (with the risk of nuclear weapons). Germany: Change of government, possibly new elections, massive loss of confidence in NATO. The Palatinate will become a restricted area.
In short:If Ramstein were “gone” due to an Oreshnik-like weapon, it would not just be the loss of a base—it would be the strategic collapse of U.S. operations in Europe. Iran would then have proven: “We can destroy your entire logistics chain in one blow.” Merz would be history, NATO divided, the war practically lost for Washington. That would be the moment when Trump would be forced to either pull out completely or risk a full-scale world war.
Posted by: SonderstabF | Mar 21 2026 17:25 utc | 87
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